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Saturday, July 08, 2006

Post-Oil Situations

We are rapidly approaching a dividing point where we will have to face two admittedly regrettable, yet clearly distinguishable, post-oil scenarios. One, in which we've got likely few people killed and a series of economic and technological breakthroughs leading to world peace, and another in which we've got 150 million people killed, or more, a series of disparaging ecological disasters, and massive starvation, shortage, poverty, and war.

-Rendered from Dr. Strangelove, 1964

I want the people in power to consider these options. We could release the technology to the public, or even to companies and into production for the 171mpg carburater and for water splitting technology.

Assume >go< on ramificiations of free energy.

What could happen?

What would the negative elements of this be? Existing stocks of oil would face substantial reduction in current and future value. We stand to replace existing infrastructure from energy companies and electrical grids as major power plants are replaced by decentralized small energy plants and energy becomes plentiful. American supremecy in the world would be reduced by losing its energy and economic monopoly of petrodollars and dramatically reducing the price of industrialization and infrastructure. Hundreds of thousands or millions of jobs could be lost from the energy sector, from manufacturing and industrial sectors which would be replaced primarily by robotics. Petroleum and chemical companies would be shut down from lack of petroleum products and use. Fertilizer and pesticide companies and agricultural businesses would need to dramatically change production.

We could potentially immediately lose all supply of oil from overseas before the transition could be made. The strateigic reserve alone can last for only perhaps 90 days and even augmented by domestic supplies of American and Canadian oil, could likely not sustain the North American economy, even at a step back during mid-transition and jarring political relations. However, no lives would be lost and all economic activity could be restored and surpassed within 3 years of technology blueprint introduction. Once this technology became worldspread, world economy and labor potential would explode geometrically.*

Conversion kits for cars could be produced cheaply and for perhaps a year's cost of oil per car a conversion could be fitted. The same could go for industrial engines and other applications. For remaining or intermediate projects, the 171mpg carburater could immediately be introduced, reducing American fuel consumption to somewhat less than 2/5 of its ordinary usage, likely sustainable by continental supplies until replacement can be arranged, likely 2-5 years' time. By replacing fertilizers with bacterially [Bacteri-Allied] expedited compost and pesticides with greenhousing and ethical ecological engineering we can nearly eliminate agricultural petroleum use and sustain and advance agricultural development. Plastic can be replaced by cornstarch and tree and hemp farms covering large portions of the American west and Canada. 'Effortless' hydrogen can be produced from Stanley Meyer's water splitter, or if necessary can be created from genetically engineered bacteria's photosynthesis.

*What is the danger of world economy and labor exploding geometrically? We could potentially face isolated groups with nearly limitless power potential doing almost anything they liked. What if an island like Japan decided to use hundreds of terrawatts of energy and robot-manhours to build an enormous array of nuclear scramjet missiles, scramjet aircraft, robotic soldiers, tanks, mineshafts, fortifications, bombs, artillery, and weapons? What if China decided to do this? These are important questions to be aced in the world of tomorrow.

Several responses arise from this. What would motivate them to do this? What would guarantee their success in a world with excellent surveillance, communication, and universal equality? I believe that the Chinese people, the Japanese people, and the people of every government would begin to behave significantly differently when they no longer relied on the state for their energy or public services so much as their local [and international/suit by proxy] police and firemen, hospital workers, construction workers and machinists. Their power could come from a neighborhood level and security techniques could make it unsabotagable, and any large population as a whole immune from mechanical sabotage.

I believe that with this limitless or unlimited energy people could pursue anything they chose to, and that they would not choose to pursue national agenda or warlike ways. Without such constraints they would no longer face shortage of resources, as they could either throw any amount of energy and therefore time into any meaningful project, or any amount into finding a better way to accomplish that project. Organization of force to subdue others would not be necessary and would be foolhardy.

Any goal could be achieved without preventing someone else from achieving a goal, except for that universal freedom principle. Those there who turn away from God and what is good would be shown justice and their injuries deleted.

I believe that a world organization dedicated to monitoring, preparing for, and exposing possible threats, including famine, disease, potential economic or material difficulties, rescues, civil service, and in the meantime, specialized education, would be the best defense against tyranny.

This could be the Human Team, or some such name. An voluntary organization of specially skilled individuals who ethically and empathically care for earth and its inhabitants and seek methods to prevent flaw in mankind's environment and to aid and assit mankind wherever possible. The focus of these Team members would scale up and downwards. Upwards would include the prevention of large volume problems, such as a pending epidemic or famine, or anything like war or natural disasters. Downwards would go from civil regions of service as police, firefighters, hospitalers, even as machinists for civil service, counselors, educators.

I imagine many of earth's people would become farmers for a portion of the day, naturalists, entertainers, robotics technicians, carpenters, construction workers, movers of goods, many dedicated and successful scientists and engineers, few fighters. Few malcontents. I imagine everyone would be able to be all of these things if they chose.

An oil baron, if they chose, could have all energy they chose from earth and water and bacteria, and likely a portion of land fairly large to control. They could have foods grown in greenhouses, machines to do whatever they like, gain entertainment from the internet or any media source, fly in planes, etc. But a game of trying to get everything would be impossible and no longer played. No one would try to force others to play that game, and no one would expect you to. They would be surprised if you tried to acquire a billion dollars, or a million. Needs would be taken care of almost universally, with dramatic pursuit of a communication-connected and motivated friendly populace to achieve a positive state for everyone.

What legitimate concerns to this subutopia present themselves? Will it arrive within 25 years, bombs or no bombs? Yes, probably. Should it have been here by 1985? Yes, probably. What is stopping it, whom and why? What focus of education do they need to achieve this garden? Would they love it? I am certain that all friends of God would love such a place.


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